An Open Letter to the President

My most recent blog opened up a debate in my own family regarding the genesis of the Iraqi War and our personal desires for appropriate outcomes.  The debate inspired me to write a letter to the President of the US, which I have copied to our own representatives and the leaders of both houses of Congress.  I apologize for the length, but I do want to share it here.

Dear Mr. President: 

Like you and many other Americans, I am extremely frustrated with the situation in Iraq and the Middle East, generally.  I believe that the current economic, political and social situation in that area of the world has the ominous potential to draw the rest of the world into a disastrous vortex.  I am also frustrated by the inwardly focused rhetoric of Washington and a debate that is mired in politics rather than solutions that the American people can support.  The American people have lost so much faith in our leaders in Washington that despair is becoming a prevalent emotion – a situation that bodes poorly for the future. 

I believe that the situation requires truly bold thinking, an abandonment of the politics of incremental progress.  America must once again lead the world with our high moral purpose and our willingness to let others decide for themselves what is best.  I offer the following thoughts as those of an extremely concerned citizen whose only motivation is to see that this great nation does not squander the opportunity to recover success from a very dire set of alternatives. First, I believe that Washington must re-iterate and clearly articulate the objectives of our activities to the people. 

1. Outcomes
1. Lower the threat of fanatic Islam
2. Improve economic, social and political stability in the Middle East
3. Ensure free trade with the Middle East, especially undisrupted flow of oil to the West
4. Protect against other outside influences from turning Middle East strategically against the US (e.g. China)

 Second, Washington must be clear regarding the motivation of our actions  

1. Decision-making
1. Moral high ground
2. Support our allies
3. Punish our enemies, when they misstep
4. Don’t count on the UN for help; but always try in the first instance
5. Always be ready to react to provocation, but do not instigate (we may be vulnerable, but the world understands reacting against evil, but not provoking it)
6. Democracy is a good outcome, but not our first objective; we should want people to have basic needs met and then we can support a reasoned and evolutionary path to Democracy
7. Seek to eradicate corruption through direct intervention

The Plan  

The United States should establish publicly in front of the UN, together with our Middle East thought partners (the UN, US, EU and Russia) the following (or by ourselves if the others won’t cooperate): Within 180 days all states affected to agree THE PLAN, or the US will put into motion a pre-decided set of steps that we will not divulge until the 180 days expires.  The world does not need to know if our surge will continue or cease – that is for us to determine so as not to undermine the troops. The Plan consists of: 

1. All US government personnel to drop the “War on Terror” phrasing and call it what it is – a war against fanatic Islamists and Al-Qaeda.
2. Emphasis on groups who want to project their aggression across national borders.
3. Israel returns to the pre-1967 borders
4. All Arab and Muslim nations recognize Israel and disavow any hostile activity
5. The UN establishes and polices Jerusalem as a Holy International site – anyone may visit, but must have a valid passport to enter
6. Syria and Iran to agree to cut off all ties with Hamas and Hezbollah
7. Hamas and Hezbollah disarmed by an independent body a la N. Ireland, but allowed to run for office
8. Iraq is divided into three Federal States comprised of Sunni, Shia and Kurdish territories (if Iraqis object, then they must resolve all differences within the 180 days to establish a unified country).
9. After the 180 days, US military will retire to the Kurdish territories (if they want us) and abandons the Arab precincts
10. US renews ties with Bahrain and Qatar to place military personnel there for 25 years
11. Carrier group remains in the Gulf
12. Current Iraqi groups in power agree an acceptable sharing of oil revenues.
13. Iraqi Arab Federal States free to develop their own relationships with any country they want
14. Free all Guantanamo detainees and try them within 90 days or return them home
15. Return half our troops home by year end.
16. Redeploy 25% to Afghanistan
17. Pakistan to allow hot pursuit of hostiles into their borders
18. Establish a Middle East Treaty Organization comprised of
1. Iran
2. Saudi
3. The Iraqi Federal States
4. Jordan
5. Afghanistan
6. Pakistan
7. Kuwait
8. The Emirates
9. Egypt
10. Israel
11. US
12. EU
13. Russia
14. China
19. Objective is to identify and discuss areas of mutual concern and to prevent cross border incursions by unaligned belligerents.
20. Iran allowed to develop nuclear power program, if and only if, UN inspectors and US/French/Russian consortiums allowed to construct the plants
21. President Musharraf of Pakistan to step down and move to the US with enough wealth to live comfortably (I suspect this is not a problem).
22. UN to monitor the return of Benazir Bhutto and oversee elections in Pakistan.

This Plan is not for negotiation; it is our plan and others may disagree. This plan reflects the frustration of 50 years of commitment to an unstable, hostile region that has shown little interest in resolving its own problems, regularly blaming ancient colonial powers or distant capitalists for their ills.  If they disagree, we will simply set into motion our own undisclosed plan at the end of the 180 days.  We can assure the world that our undisclosed plan does not include increasing the level of hostility unless others do so first – we are prepared to respond.

This plan takes the moral high ground.  Everyone must concede something and everyone gets something.  We return the focus to identifying and attacking the scourge of the Middle East - fanatic, fundamentalist, aggressive Islam.  Because Islam has no center of gravity, it reflects the clan culture of the region and moderate clerics are undermined by firebrand demagogues who appeal to the frustrations of the people.  Without a respected central leader, the religion will continue to be manipulated by those who assume this mantle.  Allowing this to evolve naturally in a contained environment should result in even greater frustration by the locals with their hotheaded fundamentalist clerics and the weak political leaders unable to protect the population.  It will also force moderate Islam into action for self preservation as they will no longer have the US or Israel to blame.

More importantly, we return the region to the oversight of those with whom it belongs – the regional regimes.  There is a price for this.  They must all participate in reducing the tensions as the entire world has an interest in doing this.  If they are not engaged in dialogue with us and contributing to reducing the tensions, then they will be ostracized and we will stand ready to force them into a corner from which the exit is extremely painful.  However, we must give them the opportunity in the first instance to participate on a level playing field with all parties.  If, as an example, Iran refuses, then they will be seen by the entire world to be the autocratic, paranoid belligerents we know them to be.  Today, we are perceived as the ominous aggressors – we must reverse this cycle. 

The Big Secret 

If the affected parties are unwilling to sign up to the plan within 180 days we unilaterally take all of these steps that are under our control anyway, including the movement of our armed forces.  If these countries are uncooperative then we will have at least tried with very fair, but tough terms in a very public forum.  We will also have acknowledged the difficulties in managing Iraq subsequent to the successful War and signaled our willingness to retire to the high ground.  Arab Iraq could become a killing field, sucking Iran and Syria in and/or stressing their regimes to the max.  Saudi Arabia’s hand would be forced into do something.  Oil prices and flow could be severely disrupted causing the rest of the world to lose its complacency and participate.  It is precisely this possibility and this threat that may force the parties to agree a comprehensive plan of action. This cannot be accomplished in a vacuum.  Important ancillary activities that we must commit to as a nation. 

1. re-energize the CIA and clandestine activities
2. commit to energy independence by 2025 – I don’t care who thinks it is impossible
3. retool the military
4. never send our troops into warfare without the objective of winning (we had a good plan) and a plan for their extraction at the end (seemingly failed to do so).
5. campaign finance reform – I do not offer this lightly; the American people are sick and tired of electioneering rather than governing – this is a bipartisan distrust.

Conclusion 

Mr. President, I know you are a sincere, honest and determined individual.  I offer these suggestions in that spirit and desperately want the United States to prosper; and to preserve and protect those freedoms that we hold dear. I am convinced that our troops have not sacrificed in vain and that a long term solution to the Middle East challenge is within reach as a result of our determined actions there.  Today, our leaders need to take bold, and perhaps truly unorthodox, steps to recover the high ground and reclaim the respect and admiration of the world.  This does not mean that we must appease anyone.  On the contrary, we must demand something from everyone and draw them all into the process.  But if we are always alone at the sharp edge of the sword, others will simply wait for us to fail.