Karl Rove says McCain would lose today and must turn things around
(This analysis was triggered by Karl Rove’s comment this weekend that, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would have three electoral votes more than he needs to be elected. Everything here comes from conservative Republican analysts and strategists. I say that because several passionate conservatives honor me by following my comments and taking the time to respond, often passionately. I got the same passionate criticism, and accusations of bias, from the passionate wing of the Democratic Party during the Presidential Primary campaign. When passionate partisans on both sides say you’re biased against them, it usually means you’re succeeding at being an analyst, not an advocate. It’s also important to note that the state polls I draw from here were all conducted BEFORE the vice-presidential debate. State polls are always “lagging indicators.”)
With one month before the election, it looks like the McCain-Palin ticket must start turning things around this week, or start preparing their concession speeches. Karl Rove, studying state polls, said Sunday that, if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would get 273 electoral votes, three more than he needs to get elect. Rove has moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from undecided to Obama, and McCain is playing defense, and could lose, in 10 states that have voted for Republican since 1944, longer in some cases.
Here’s why:
1. The good news is that Sarah Palin looked good in her debate with Joe Biden. Neither fell into a trap or made any gaffes. Palin supporters can now be less afraid that she’ll embarrass herself and drag the ticket down. The bad news is that she did not change the minds of
many people who doubted her readiness to be president, according to daily national polls.
2. Obama is leading in most national polls, including the one about being cool and steady in a crisis. He went over 50 percent in that one for the first time last week. He’s never been ahead in that pole before.
3. McCain pulled his troops out of Michigan, and sent Palin to the crimson sate of Nebraska. Michigan was once McCain’s best hope of turning around a state that went for John Kerry in 2004. Nebraska awards their electoral votes by congressional district. The Republicans are afraid of losing the one electoral vote from Omaha.
4. Meanwhile, Obama is campaigning this week in North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, states that have not voted for a Democrat for president since 1960 or before. State polls say they are up for grabs right now, along with historically Republican strongholds in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.
5. The inherited wisdom is that no one can win without carrying Ohio, but there are several scenarios where Obama could make it without Ohio, which is up for grabs as usual. McCain is gambling on Pennsylvania, and playing defense in states he should have without campaigning.
6. In two weeks, people will receive their quarterly reports on their 401Ks, and learn exactly how much the economic meltdown has cost them so far. Democrats win on economic issues.
7. McCain’s attempt to suspend his campaign and solve the credit crisis backfired. His supporters say he put country ahead of politics, but most people thought he was grandstanding and erratic, and resented his effort to cancel a debate. To make it work, he needed a plan, and he didn’t have one. Obama looked cool in a crisis.
8. The economy is so bad, and sliding, that George Will, was reduced to saying “big government” caused the crisis by forcing banks to lend money to black (and other questionable) people. The logic is a stretch, and the statement is racist, even though Will is not a racist or one who believes markets will always correct themselves if left unregulated. It was the only way he could think of to defend Republican economic policy, which has manifestly failed.
9. Unemployment will go up again in October.
10. Will said attacking Obama is the wrong strategy for the final month, though it will probably narrow the polls. McCain should be telling voters that we’re going to have a very liberal Congress next year, and the only way to stop their excesses is to vote for McCain. Historically, voters seem to prefer divided government, but making people feel afraid to vote for Obama has not worked so far.
11. The good news is that a lot can still happen in a month, and McCain is not a quitter. As the old saying goes, “Now is the time for all good men (and women) to come to the aid of their party.”
I included the good news; there just wasn't much
You'll find the good news in Items 1 and 11, Bill. The election ain't over till it's over, as Yogi Berra would say, I predict the election will get closer than it is right now, and might turn around completely.
This list does not include the hurdles everyone knew any Republican would have to jump this year. Those hurdles have gotten higher since the campaign began:
Bush is as unpopular as Nixon on the day he resigned. Parties who hold the White House for eight years tend to lose the next election. There are now more registered Democrats than Republicans. Just mobilizing the base, as Karl Rove did so brilliantly twice, will not get Republicans enugh votes to win.
There are many new voters this year, and most are registering Democrat. Polls can't show how many of them will vote. They also can't predict how many people won't vote for Obama just because he is African-American.
Incumbent parties tend to lose when the economy is bad in the third quarter of the year. It's about how people feel as much as economic indicators, which most people don't understand because they are not Alan Greeenspan.
The third quarter ended Sept. 30, with rising unemployment, record foreclosures. housing prices so depressed that people can't sell, and buyers couldn't borrow. The economy has been in free-fall ever since.
Polls show Obama leading or within the margin of error in 10 states, including Florida and Ohio, that went for Bush in 2004, according to ABC News tonight. That's more important than a 20-point lead in national polls because we have an Electoral College.
To win, McCain must carry every state George Bush did in 2004, plus a state that went for John Kerry. They thought Michigan was their best bet, but they pulled out and gave up on Michigan last week. Michiganders hate their Democratic governor and the Democratic mayor of Detroit, who pleaded guilty to a felony and was sentenced last month. But the economy has overridden those concerns.
Now Republicans are focusing on Pennsylvania.
Ken
It goes to show you
No matter who wins, about 50% of the population will feel as if they are not represented.
Until both sides agree to give and take and rule from the middle, there will be division.
McCain is closer to the middle. Obama is too far Left and as seen in his repudiation of Hillary, is too stubborn and doctrinaire.
Some non-mainstrean news could certainly turn things around.
Prosecutors Seek to Delay Sentencing of Tony Rezko
CHICAGO: Prosecutors seek to delay sentencing for Chicago money man, suggesting felon linked to Barack Obama has secrets to share.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/07/prosecutors-seek-delay-sentencing-tony-reko/
Good morning,
I am getting more optimistic that McCain can tighten the gap given tonight's town hall style forum, if the media can continue to dig up interesting bits of info on Obama's past that are squeaking in prior to the Election. Though things have looked bleak, last impressions are just as powerful as first's in this election.
Obama can't rehearse for a federal subpoena and run for president if he has been anointed as an active participant in corruption.
Wrong Closing Strategy
Good post, Ken! To build on point #10, I think McCain is definitely going the wrong route for the final 30 days. With the Palin pick and his drift to the right he more or less consolidated his conservative base. What he needs to do now is bring in independents, and a message of bipartisanship (backed by his record) coupled with some real solutions may help close the deal with some of those undecideds. By going negative in the waning days of the campaign he may further rile up his base (and Obama's), but I'm not so sure it's going to resonate with a lot of independent voters. He runs the risk of turning people off.
The Obama Litany
The Obama Litany: please forward as desired…
Senator Obama was given the opportunity to attend the prestigious Occidental College in Southern California, and he dropped out.
He was accepted to the prestigious Columbia University in New York, and we don't know what he accomplished because he refuses to disclose his transcripts.
He went to Chicago to become a community organizer and quit because, in his own words, "I wasn't accomplishing anything."
He was then accepted to the very prestigious Harvard Law School. We don't know what he accomplished there because he refuses to release his transcripts.
He was then named Editor-in-Chief for the Harvard Law Review, the most renowned law review in the country, and didn't write a single article.
He was then accepted to the post of Senior Lecturer at the prestigious University of Chicago.
There again, he didn't write a single article. As board member of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, he was responsible for disbursing over $100 million to improve Chicago's public schools.
By the projects own admission, the money accomplished nothing. As Illinois State Senator, he voted present 194 times and didn't have a single note-worthy piece of legislation to his name.
As US Senator, he hasn't once called a meeting of the one commission that he chairs. When forced to take a position, Senator Obama has consistently chosen the wrong one.
When given a chance to vote to save infants born alive after an abortion, he voted against it.
When given the chance to take money from the "Bridge to Nowhere" and give it the victims of Katrina, he voted against it.
When given a chance to vote for the successful surge in Iraq, he voted against it.
When given the chance to condemn Russia's invasion of Georgia, he chose not to.
When given the chance to take a stand on the economic crisis currently facing us, he chose to "wait and see". "Call me if you need me." He said. Never in the history of our Republic has a candidate for President been given so many opportunities and accomplished so little with them.
Do you really believe that if given the opportunity to lead this great nation he will all of the sudden start doing better?
You can vote for hope, and you can vote for change, but you can't simply hope for change.
I think McCain was closer to
I think McCain was closer to the middle. He is getting farther an farther to the right as the race gets closer to the end. As evidenced by his choice of running mate - religious right, scarily financially conservative (rape victims pay for their own rape kit?),anti-women, anti-conservation, pro big oil, pro NRA, being investigated for corruptio, etc.. She puts George Bush in the middle of the road.
I am really looking forward to returning to financially conservative, socially responsible leadership.
Are you kidding
Barbara is your farm in OZ???? To use the words financially conservative and Barak Obama in the same sentence is bizarre. You can't possibly be describing the same democrat party that gave us the financial meltdown of our entire banking system by giving Carte Blanche lending authority to bankers to make loans to deadbeats and untrustworthy individuals all on the taxpayers dime,,,financially conservative??? Socially responsible people do not have friends like William Ayers or Jeremiah Wright. They do not sit in a church for twenty years listening to a bigot and racist ranting about how evil America and it's people are...Who is Barak Obama??? Beyond the cheap rhetoric of hope and change, what has this man ever accomplished beyond defeating Hillary that would convince you to make him the leader of the free world. With all of the promises the Obama campaign has made to new programs and spending the only thing we can hope for is that there might be some spare change left after paying our increased tax bill!
Scott
I like Oz
Military spending has increased more than other over the last 8 years. I really don't think we would be in this war if Obama had his way. I see the financial crisis coming under Bush's watch, not a Democrat's. Working as a community organizer shows me that he really believes people can help themselves, which is heading in a better direction than "don't spend any money on people in our country." During Bush's watch, taxes went down artificially, by not paying our nation's bills and putting us farther into debt than ever. The $100 a year I saved in Bush tax cuts is just not worth the debt he put us in.
Yes, in Oz you pay your bills, avoid debt, don't steal (Wall Street). and don't start wars. I like it here.
Great Place Oz...
But, it just avoids the Truth..
1999 NY Times Article Revealed True Cause of Current Fannie Mae Crises
By P.J. Gladnick
This is probably an article that the New York Times wishes it didn't have in its archives because it reveals the true culprits behind the current Fannie Mae meltdown. You will find "uncomfortable" truths in this September 30, 1999 article by Steven A. Holmes starting with the title, "Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending," that you won't find in current editions of the New York Times (emphasis mine):
In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.
The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.
Get that? Pressure by the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans by lowering its credit requirements.
''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''
That would be the same Franklin Raines whom the Washington Post identified as a mortgage and housing adviser for the Obama campaign until that newspaper told us not to rely on its own reporting. We return you now to the article that the New York Times wishes didn't exist:
<Snip>
Read the rest:
Ignorance is no longer bliss...
It's dangerous! In Oz a simple bucket of water destroys the evil witch of the west. In the world we live in today simple fixes don't exist...we live in a world where committed evil people plot to kill us. Their plans include development of weapons of mass destruction and effective ways to deliver those weapons.
Candidate Obama explained his belief that we have no reason to be in Iraq, yet he asserts a need to wade into the civil wars and horror of places like Dafur. I find it ironic that after the attack of September 11th we still believe that Iraq is some sort of distraction. The middle east is not a land of mystery. Anyplace where there is chaos you will find Al Queda and other terrorist groups. Throw in a sympathetic, demogogic dictator and you have a safe haven for the planning and execution of terrorist attacks.
Even Oz will no longer be a safe haven if you elect Obama as your wizard. Like Dorothy you will soon learn that like Baum's original character the wizard has no real answers or solutions.
Obama Plane Smells Bad, and other info. from the Press
This just shows the kind of elitist Liberal pompous a$$ we're going to have for POTUS if he wins.
Yes Judy!
People think they are going to be 'given' something by Obama. They criticize trickle down economics but Obama's plan is slow drip economics.
Nancy Pelosi and many others in Congress are filthy rich. Yet they want to tax those in the middle class to redistribute wealth.
Obama gives 832,000 to ACORN for 'lights and staging' aka voter registration. The approach is cigarettes and alcohol for the homeless in turn for their vote. If Obama served 8 years, most of those homeless folks would either be dead or still living on the streets.
Look around Concord at the elites in their Volvo's and Saab's and ask yourself why they support higher taxes and a candidate who they know will raise taxes.
Two reasons: They have enough money and a tax hike won't hurt them. They have a sense of guilt about their success and in their own minds believe that everyone lives like them so we all should share in the burden.
Maybe a third reason: They are just plain dumb and elitist.
In any event, the rich supporting Obama, or even Obama spending $832,000 could have given that money to the poor that they 'care so much about'. I see few of them opening their wallets. They are expecting that from the rest of us, who can't afford to share our pittance.
More than Obama's plane smells!!
With all of that bad news, Obama should be ahead by 20 points. It is not a settled election yet, regardless of what pundits and pollsters say.
Talk about negative though? Look at the most recent ads.