The Democratic Presidential Race and the GLBT Factor

With the Republican presidential nomination locked up for Sen. John McCain, all eyes are now on the Democrats. Both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama scored some significant wins over the past week, but with the Pennsylvania nearly six weeks away, it gives us a little time to ponder some of the more minute details of the election thus far. There have certainly been some interesting trends in terms of what voting blocs have supported which candidate and in what states. One thing that I've been wondering about for a while, however, is how the GLBT vote has been swinging on the Democratic side?

After a bit of poking around, I turned up articles here and there that pointed to some general trends. For the most part, GLBT voters have good choices in this year's election. Both Democratic candidates support civil unions, would push to end "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," oppose a Federal Marriage Amendment, and would urge lawmakers to expand hate crimes legislation to GLBT individuals. Republican nominee John McCain is also viewed more favorably than the current President when it comes to GLBT rights, due to his opposition to the Federal Marriage Amendment.

When it comes to the Democratic vote in particular, it would seem that Sen. Clinton had the slight edge in the early going. Over the past few weeks, however, support has become a bit more evenly split, and Sen. Obama is now signing on new support among the leadership in the community. There may be many reasons behind the trends.

Starting out, Sen. Clinton had much of the institutional support in the GLBT community behind her, as well as a name many people trusted. The two openly gay members of Congress, for example, both backed Clinton. The former first lady had gained some early standing in the community by marching in the New York Pride parade back in 2000. Obama, for his part, angered many in the GLBT community when he allowed a pastor who called homosexuality a sin sing at a fundraiser last October.

In recent months, however, Obama has held his own among GLBT voters. As they've become more familiar with him and his stances on the issues, he's done quite well, winning in predominantly gay neighborhoods recently in Washington, D.C., Madison, Wisconsin, and San Francisco, California. Obama sometimes references the need for tolerance for GLBT individuals unprompted, which I'm sure has helped his standing in the community. He also stands in roughly the same place on the issues as Clinton does.

If you search for overall trends, however, it gets a little fuzzy. According to an article in Bloomberg (link earlier on in the post), very few states include questions about GLBT voters in their exit polls. In states that have asked such questions, like California and New York, Clinton has taken the GLBT vote roughly 60% to 40%. Given that the race has changed quite a bit since Super Tuesday, however, I think the vote is likely to be more evenly split at this point in the race.

It would be interesting to see how the vote breaks down in future contests, and also to see the impact that GLBT individuals have on the election. While individuals identifying as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender make up only 2-10% of the population, depending on who you ask, it is a voting bloc that could potentially swing a narrow contest one way or the other.

Taking a step back, I'm glad to see the choices we have in this election, however. It leaves me hopeful that in the coming years the climate for GLBT individuals will at least be a little better and a little less bitter.