Friday's Four Downs: Pats-Bolts

With kickoff coming quickly, the storylines leading up to Sunday's AFC Divisional playoff continue to compile. There are sometimes-dominant defenses on both sides of the field, multi-faceted offenses, a league MVP and one of the sport's all-time best winners. There's also a rookie quarterback, a rookie kicker, a coach trying to kick a loser's reputation and another seeking to extend his reign as the league's resident winner. We can't account for it all here in the blogosphere, but we'll nibble at elements of the Chargers-Patriots matchup in this week's Four Downs.

FIRST DOWN

If the footage of their own 41-17 throttling -- taken in October 2005 -- hasn't been fulfilling for Marty Schottenheimer and the San Diego coaching staff, the Chargers have certainly checked out the films of this season's Patriots game at Miami.

Not only did the Dolphins destroy the Patriots, 21-0, but they did it in such a dominating fashion that there are undoutbtedly clues to be extracted, so if they can put those in practice on Sunday then New England is in some serious trouble. And since both use 3-4 defenses, it's not at all outside the realm of possibilities.

In that December game, Miami found a way to exploit the Patriots' offensive line. That's a group that received a lot of acclaim in the preseason, and was labeled by Tom Brady as the best he's worked with, but has been inconsistent this season -- while being downright awful against the Dolphins. Despite double-teaming Jason Taylor they couldn't keep the NFL defensive player of the year out of their own backfield, and his pressure was more pertinent than the one sack and forced fumble that showed up on the stat sheet.

If San Diego can somehow capture that strategy to use the same stunts and scheme, the Pats could have serious problems. Outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is at least Taylor's equal as a pass rusher -- his 17 sacks prove that -- and he's got some support on the other side, too. Shaun Phillips is relentless coming off the other edge. He's dropped 11.5 quarterbacks on his own.

"They have a great front seven," Pats Coach Bill Belichick said this week. "Those two guys off the edge are tough, but they bring the inside people as well ... in different combinations. They keep you off balance. You have to block all seven of them. They're hard to get blocked."

The one area in which the Patriots offense succeeded against the Dolphins was running the ball, where they gained 123 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. But the passing game was useless.

The Dolphins used a majority of press coverage to disrupt the Patriots' quick-hit, timing-heavy passing attack, and it worked. Without being able to get off the line, the receivers were not open when Brady looked at his initial reads; and since Taylor and Co. were in the backfield soon thereafter, there really was no time to scan for anything beyond that.

The result was one of the worst days in Brady's pro career, and probably as bad a performance as a signal caller can have without throwing an interception. He completed only 12 of 25 throws and gained just 78 yards. His most productive pass went for just 21 yards and his passer rating was a measly -- but not Rex Grossman-like -- 55.1.

In the aftermath, speculators blamed the bad day on Miami's familiarity with Brady's line calls. And while there may be some validity to that, there were bigger issues. It didn't matter what play was called that day, because few plays even got anywhere near the point of completion. Most were blown up well before then, thanks to break downs in blocking -- and if that's replicated come Sunday, New England is in big trouble.

"That Miami game was tough for everybody," Brady said. "I don't think anybody played that well. That was a gut check day for all of us ... and we have to go out and learn from it and try to make improvements. I think we've really done that and since that game it's been much better."

SECOND DOWN

Most believe Sunday's game, however it may finish, will be close throughout. And that's probably why Patriots fans are so optimistic, since games like that often come down to coaching and experience.

But there's a caveat to that confidence. The Chargers to the NFL as Jonathan Papelbon was to the Red Sox last season: they are the best closers in the game.

San Diego has outscored its opponents, 176-82, in the fourth quarter this season. That means they're putting up an average of 11 points in the final period, while holding opponents to less than a touchdown.

As a result, the Chargers are 3-1 when going to the fourth quarter facing a deficit, and why they've been able to force teams into desperate situations late in games. Of their 16 interceptions this season, six have come in the fourth quarter (fifth-most in the NFL), and they have 19 sacks in that frame, as well as five fumble recoveries.

Also, by beating Denver 35-27 near midseason, the Chargers became the first team in NFL history to win consecutive games after trailing by at least 17 points, and also the first team ever to take victories in four straight contests in which they've allowed at least 24 points. That might bring up questions about the strength of their defense -- but it certainly answers those about whether San Diego can survive if the game is on the line late.

THIRD DOWN

Monday night on Mike Murphy's wonderful WTPL radio show, I went against my fellow panelists and predicted the Chargers would beat the Patriots. Admittedly, it was a pick without having done much research. I, like much of the region, was still stuck on the Jets game, hadn't done my research - and thus it was safe to assume the 14-2 team would beat the 12-4 team.

As I did my research, though, things became less clear. I began to believe more in the Patriots' ability to rise to the occasion, and less in the Chargers' apparent invincibilities. Ultimately I came to the conclusion that it's a pretty even game - so I opted to go with the numbers.

Since we don't have a head-to-head matchup on which to base things, and because schedules can mean so much to a record, I've decided to do this the fair way. I've come up with 10 categories I feel provide a fair way to evaluate the two teams, and whichever wins more categories will be my choice. If it's tied, I'll go with the Pats based on experience and coaching.

So here we go...

RECORD AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS

SAN DIEGO: 5-0 :: NEW ENGLAND 3-1

New England's loss to Denver comes back to bite them, while San Diego handled Denver twice and took advantage of a yet-to-improve Tennessee team in Week 2. The Chargers also won at Cincy and Buffalo, matching the Pats.

POINTS SCORED AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS

SAN DIEGO: 39.2 :: NEW ENGLAND 23.5

The Chargers posted an impressive 196 points in the five games, including explosions of 49 against Cincinnati, 48 as well as 35 against Denver and 40 against Tennessee. The Pats, on the contrary, scored just seven against the Broncos and only 94 over four games.

POINTS ALLOWED AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS

SAN DIEGO: 23.2 :: NEW ENGLAND 15.8

New England's defense could be the X-factor on Sunday, and it is here, too. Only Tennessee (23) reached 20 points against the Pats among common opponents.

RECORD AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS

SAN DIEGO: 2-2 :: NEW ENGLAND 3-2

The Chargers split with Kansas City, beat Seattle and lost to Baltimore. The Patriots beat the Jets twice, and also beat Chicago, but lost to both New York and Indianapolis.

SCORING MARGIN AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS

SAN DIEGO: +2.0 :: NEW ENGLAND +4.4

Against teams that made the playoffs, the Chargers weren't as prolific offensively, and beat opponents by an average of 20-18. The Pats, meanwhile, averaged victories of 22.4-18.

RECORD AGAINST TEAMS OVER .500

SAN DIEGO: 4-2 :: NEW ENGLAND 3-3

San Diego beat Denver (twice), Kansas City and Seattle, and were felled by the Chiefs and Baltimore; New England beat the Jets (twice) and Chicago, while being beaten by New York, Indianapolis and Denver.

RECORD AGAINST EXACTLY .500 TEAMS

SAN DIEGO: 4-0 :: NEW ENGLAND 4-0

Both clubs beat Cincinnati and Tennessee, while San Diego added wins over Pittsburgh and St. Louis and New England beat Green Bay and Jacksonville.

RECORD AGAINST UNDER .500 TEAMS

SAN DIEGO: 6-0 :: NEW ENGLAND 6-1

This is relevant because it demonstrates a team's ability to take care of business on a weekly basis, and avoid a letdown against a lesser opponent. That's what happened to the Pats in Miami, and it proves a piece of vulnerability.

POINTS SCORED AGAINST TOP 10 DEFENSES

SAN DIEGO: 30.0 :: NEW ENGLAND 20.0

While San Diego faced only four teams in the NFL's top 10 according to points allowed, New England faced such teams 10 times. Among this sample set is the Chargers' averaging 42.5 points in two games against divisional rival Denver, while the Pats could muster only 7.

POINTS ALLOWED AGAINST TOP 10 OFFENSES

SAN DIEGO: 32.5 :: NEW ENGLAND 17.5

San Diego's highly touted defense didn't do much against good offenses, giving up 65 points in two games against the league's most prolific attacks (Cincinnati and St. Louis). The Patriots, meanwhile, surrendered just 70 points in four games, and never more than 27 in a single tilt.

-- -- -- -- --

Added up, that makes it 5-4-1 in favor of the Chargers, so true to my word I will go with San Diego. At least professionally. (Personally, I see the Pats by a touchdown.)

FOURTH DOWN

As for the rest of the NFL action, here's how my colleagues and I see the Divisional weekend going down. This week -- special treat! -- we've added scores as well.

JEFF NOVOTNY (38-46 overall; 3-1 playoffs)
INDIANAPOLIS 23, Baltimore 17
PHILADELPHIA 28, New Orleans 24
CHICAGO 6, Seattle 3
SAN DIEGO 27, New England 13

DAVE D'ONOFRIO (43-41 overall; 2-2 playoffs)
INDIANAPOLIS 24, Baltimore 7
PHILADELPHIA 35, New Orleans 31
CHICAGO 31, Seattle 10
SAN DIEGO 28, New England 24 (It pains me, too.)

DONOVAN BURBA (43-36 overall; 4-0 playoffs)
INDIANAPOLIS 24, Baltimore 10
PHILADELPHIA 24, New Orleans 17
CHICAGO 66, Seattle 0
SAN DIEGO 21, New England 17

So it seems we all see it the same way. That probably means the smart money is being bet on the opposite. Enjoy the games, everyone.