(This analysis was triggered by Karl Rove’s comment this weekend that, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would have three electoral votes more than he needs to be elected.  Everything here comes from conservative Republican analysts and strategists.  I say that because several passionate conservatives honor me by following my comments and taking the time to respond, often passionately.  I got the same passionate criticism, and accusations of bias, from the passionate wing of the Democratic Party during the Presidential Primary campaign.  When passionate partisans on both sides say you’re biased against them, it usually means you’re succeeding at being an analyst, not an advocate.  It’s also important to note that the state polls I draw from here were all conducted BEFORE the vice-presidential debate.  State polls are always “lagging indicators.”)